Saturday, June 11, 2011

George Friedman: The China “Miracle” Is a Mirage 中国的所谓奇迹只是一个幻觉

George Friedman: China and the US 中国只是个海市蜃楼

George Friedman: The China “Miracle” Is a Mirage

Posted Jan 26, 2011 11:57am by Stacy Curtin

Chinese President Hu Jintao’s visit to the United States last week yielded more of the same tired promises on trade, currency and human rights that the world has all heard before. However, the visit did end with China agreeing to invest a whopping $45 billion in the U.S. in various trade and business deals - including the purchase of 200 Boeing aircraft.

The Obama administration would like you to believe these deals are a major win for the American economy, potentially creating more than 200,000 jobs here at home. But, if you’re geopolitical expert George Friedman, president of STRATFOR, you might think this is just one more of China’s ploys to pull a fast one.

China’s Inferiority Complex

In the coming years, "China's economic performance will slow to that of a more mature economy - a more mature economy with over a billion people living in abject poverty," Friedman argues in his latest book, The Next Decade.

From billions of people living in poverty to rising inflation, China has its problems – every country does. But, China’s got more than problems; the country has an inferiority complex, says Friedman.

“The reason they put their money in the United States is they don’t want to invest in China,” he tells Aaron in the accompanying clip.

For all those who argue that China is growing in influence and on a course to become the world’s dominant power, Friedman would ask: If China is such a great investment, why aren’t they putting their money where it matters most -- at home?

China’s got something to hide, says Friedman. If China were a good investment, he argues, the country would invest at home and not be gobbling up resources around the world.

A Relationship of Unequals

Another problem China faces is its dependence on the U.S. says Friedman. The U.S. is not beholden to China, but China is “hostage to the West.”

America remains China’s largest customer and therefore, they have to keep us “happy” in order to keep the money flowing, says Friedman. If they don’t, U.S. firms can choose to invest in some of the even cheaper labor markets around the world.

And while we do rely on China to perpetuate this country’s trillions of dollars in deficit spending, we should not fear China dumping its billions of dollars in Treasuries, says Friedman. China’s got no better option to put its money.

Plain and simple, he says “China’s backed against a wall.”

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